Finding an Edge in Sports Betting is the first article of this series 해외배팅. I discussed the tools required to become successful as a gambler. While this is the most crucial aspect if you want beat the bookies or your fellow players in betting exchanges, this is not the only requirement. Long-term profits are often not possible for those who have the ability to win at betting.
Being disciplined in betting refers to your ability manage losses and place bets only when you feel that you have an advantage. Fun Bets and Interest bets can prove to be a major problem for many otherwise financially successful gamblers. A fun bet is any wager that doesn’t fit your criteria for a value bet. You might wager on Monday’s football because you like it. Or you could place a bet on Wolverhampton racing while you wait to see your main bet run at Newmarket. These bets could drain or even eliminate the profits you make on your main bets. You’re confident that you have an advantage on the market.
If your local casino had a special offer where every hour they toss a penny and offer each player 11/10 on heads, then you would have the edge. The long term benefit of backing heads on every head is that you can make money, as long as Del Boy does not supply the coin. Let’s say that the offer was restricted to $100 per person. Your profit expectation for each wager would be $5 (50% of 100*2.1)-100) This means that if you come to the casino at the hour and play for an average of $30 every day, you’ll make an average profit of $30 per visit. You have an advantage and are able to exploit it to make an overall profit. While you wait for your hourly bet to come in, you might play some blackjack. Let’s suppose that the casino has an average edge of 2% perhand and you play 60 hands an hour. That would give you an expected loss of $12 per hour if your hand bet is $10. As you wait for your hourly value bet’, you may also be placing many smaller bets. This will reduce the profit that you make from the coin flip bet.
Although this example may not be feasible because casinos seldom offer such incentives to punters, many punters do follow a similar pattern every day. While they may go to the local betting shops or just watch the racing on TV every day, the policy will always be to back any horse that is of interest to them in most races. Similar to the casino example above, most punters lack the discipline and discipline to wait for the bets with which they think they are winning. While it’s okay to have a bet in all races, only if you can find one you believe is value. Discipline is key to your success in identifying value bets. If you have five or more strong bets, and then mix them with many fun bets, all of your hard work will be lost.
If I set the horse’s true odds at 2.26, and then decide that I’ll place it at 2.0 at Betfair, I won’t be able to lay higher unless my true numbers change to reflect new information. Although it might seem close, if the horse is 2.02, many people may think that it’s too close. If you plan to break it, there’s no need to set a maximum or minimum lay price. If you feel 2.02 is close enough to be considered, then 2.04 should be considered close to 2.02 and 2.06 close to 2.04. Where should you draw your line? Before you know, you’re placing the horse at its true odds price. After you have paid commission, you may lose the horse if your true odds were correct.
Even though you were able to accurately predict what the event would be, you lost money long-term because you couldn’t resist having the bet even if the price was wrong. If you just want to enjoy betting, that’s great. I can’t think of any worse ways to spend your money. But if you want a long-term winner, you will need the discipline and the temperament to eliminate ‘fun wagers’ or bets not meeting your price criteria. No matter if the price criteria you set are met or not, you must always get the best deal. This includes opening as many accounts as you can, and getting bookies’ free bets.
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